Current costs for fuel-cell technology average about $49 per kilowatt according to the Carbon Trust study. This figure must reach $36 per kilowatt for participating automakers to remain competitive with traditional vehicles. The UK Carbon Trust used a few assumptions in this assessment including a minimum production run of 500,000 units and a maximum stack output of 85 kW. A downward shift in fuel-cell prices could supercharge this market niche to about $261 billion in revenues by 2050. The Carbon Trust is particularly interested in estimated revenues of $4 billion per year for regional partners.

An engine for the Carbon Trust to achieve these goals is the Polymer Fuel Cells Challenge. This $10 million initiative challenges ITM Power, ACAL Energy and Imperial College to develop innovative approaches to fuel-cell development. ITM Power is working on a membrane for cell stacks that could double energy density without increasing stack size. ACAL Energy is simplifying stack components and improving the construction process to reduce platinum use by about 70%. Researchers at Imperial College and University College London are designing stackable cells that significantly reduce assembly costs.

The Polymer Fuel Cells Challenge has created competition among partners though fuel-cell innovation will require eventual collaboration. ITM Power is conducting performance tests this year on the cell membrane in lab simulations before hitting the road. ACAL Energy is developing a 10 kW stack prototype and negotiating agreements with automakers for road tests in 2014. A special purpose vehicle using stackable cells from Imperial College and University College London will be ready by next year. The UK Carbon Trust is on the right track and a fusion of these technologies could push down costs ahead of the 2050 projection.

NREL accumulated significant data during 500,000 trips by test drivers and researchers with the participating teams. This data came from 180 fuel cell vehicles traveling more than 3.6 million miles across the United States. Participating teams completed in excess of 33,000 refueling stops at public and private stations from coast to coast. The final report from NREL revealed that the first generation of fuel-cell vehicles used in 2006 operated at an efficiency range of 51% to 58%. A second generation of models introduced later in the demonstration increased the range to 53% to 59%.

A significant goal of the Learning Demonstration was proving that production fuel-cell vehicles could consistently travel up to 250 miles per trip. The Savannah River National Laboratory monitored a Toyota FCHV-adv during a 431-mile journey through California in June 2009. Researchers determined that the median range for a second-generation vehicle was 81 miles, a 45% increase over first-generation models. The latest estimates from NREL showed a 75% increase in median range thanks to greater capacity and engine performance. NREL points out that median average obscures maximum ranges exceeding 250 miles but used medians to assess range improvement.

Additional criteria forced automakers to prove that their fuel-cell systems could reach 2,000 hours of operation and $3 per gallon equivalent. The maximum time to 10% capacity was 2,521 hours though the average operating time for second-generation vehicles was 1,062 hours. NREL found that participating vehicles cost $10 to $13 per gallon equivalent to refuel. Separate studies by the U.S. DOE found that refueling could be as low as $2.75 per gallon equivalent with scaled-up infrastructure. The Learning Demonstration traced significant advancements in fuel-cell technology but vehicles and infrastructure must advance further to become commercially viable.

The BMVBS signed a letter of intent with Daimler, Linde and Total Germany last week to coordinate on this infrastructure expansion. This letter of intent features a commitment by the German government of $51 million for research, installation and maintenance of new stations. Additional refueling stations are heading for major cities throughout Germany as well as motorways that connect highly traveled hotspots. Researchers at BMVBS estimate that the expanded network will serve about 5,000 fuel-cell vehicles in 2015.

Industry players like CEP and Daimler have laid groundwork for fuel-cell vehicles in recent years. CEP began studying fuel-cell vehicles and infrastructure in 2002 by drawing on the research acumen of universities throughout Europe. This international group targeted Germany due to the confluence of manufacturing plants and research institutes as well as a relatively strong economy that can bear R&D costs. Daimler has recognized the need for parallel developments in vehicle technology and infrastructure to quickly mobilize green transportation. The auto giant has worked with Linde to produce refueling technology while brands like Mercedes-Benz investigate fuel-cell drive systems.

The map above shows Germany’s role as a leader in hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Germany contributes significantly to a north/south line of fuel-cell stations from Denmark to Italy. Fuel-cell vehicle owners can only hope that an east/west route emerges that connects the European continent. BMVBS and German industrial players are catching up on infrastructure development that has been sluggish in the past four years. The existing network of 15 refilling stations is essentially non-existent for a growing number of motorists interested in fuel-cell vehicles. Germany must expand beyond the 2015 goal in order to encourage domestic automakers and manufacturers toward mass production of fuel-cell vehicles.

State grants through the Texas Clean Fleet Program will be used largely to reimburse upfront costs for alt-fuel vehicles. The program defines alt-fuel vehicles as any vehicle powered by electricity, compressed natural gas (CNG), hydrogen, propane or M85. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality will also select qualifying hybrids that use at least two energy sources for propulsion. Grant recipients will receive between 50% and 80% reimbursement for the costs of replacing traditional vehicles.

Major criteria for this round of grant funding including emissions reductions, fleet size and public demonstrations in Texas cities. Each applicant must achieve an estimated cut of 25% in nitrogen oxide emissions to become a finalist. Successful applicants are required to operate a fleet of at least 75 passenger vehicles and plan replacement of at least 20 vehicles. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality requires funded projects to operate in Austin, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Port Arthur, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview or Victoria. These operations must last at least five years or 400,000 miles in order to educate the public about alt-fuel vehicles and encourage investment in local industries.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that Texas has the second largest fleet of alt-fuel vehicles behind California. The Lone Star State combines research universities including the flagship university in Austin with energy industry powers based in Houston, San Antonio and Dallas. Texas is often painted as a conservative stronghold locked in thrall of the oil industry. The Texas Clean Fleet Program makes strides against this perception albeit with a relatively small investment. Applicants seeking $5.7 million in state grants are pushing Texas toward an energy industry that can be profitable as well as environmentally responsible.

California firm CALSTART was the recipient of five grants worth more than $6.6 million. CALSTART received $3.3 million to work with UTC and CTTransit in Hartford, Connecticut to build and demonstrate a New Flyer hybrid bus within the next few years. The organization is working with BAE Systems and Hydrogenics to update fuel cells on a demonstrator bus in San Francisco using $1.5 million in federal money. The National Fuel Cell Bus Program also funds smaller projects like the development of high-voltage air conditioning converters and a market analysis of the fuel-cell industry in the United States.

The Center for Transportation and the Environment also received five grants for about $3.6 million. The largest grant received by this Atlanta-based center was a $1.5 million reward for partners Proterra, Hydrogenics and Embedded Power and Controls. This reward will be used to replace fuel cells in buses currently operating in Austin, Texas and analyze improvements in next-generation cells. An additional $1.7 million will be used by CTE, DesignLine and Ohio State University to operate a trial run of a hydrogen bus within the university’s Campus Area Bus Service. The National Fuel Cell Bus Program is also funding research into DC/DC conversion and efforts to coordinate research within the fuel-cell industry.

A final recipient of federal funds was the Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium based in Boston. The $2.8 million grant will be used to replace hydrogen fuel cells already used by transit systems in eastern Massachusetts. The Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium includes manufacturers like BAE Systems and Nuvera that will receive funds to advance fuel-cell technology. The National Fuel Cell Bus Program costs very little within the context of the federal budget but could boost the fuel-cell industry in major markets.

The National Community Deployment Challenge dovetails with legislation by Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN). The Promoting Electric Vehicles legislation would create incentives for communities to develop charging infrastructure necessary for mass EV adoption. President Obama’s proposal would not focus solely on EVs, allowing communities to invest in biofuels, natural gas and other fuel sources. Five communities chosen for this new federal program could receive funds to develop infrastructure corridors for vehicles using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The National Community Deployment Challenge would encourage holistic development of infrastructure including refueling stations, billing, parking adjustments and local tax incentives.

President Obama described a series of tax credits and adjustments that could significantly reduce EV operating costs. The consumer tax credit could increase from $7,500 to $10,000 with more vehicles eligible for the credit. Owners and operators with alt-fuel commercial trucks would receive credits up to 50% of operating costs spread over five years. An important element of this plan is the portability of the credit, allowing the buyer to transfer the credit to a dealer in exchange for immediate savings.

The EV Everywhere initiative could draw significant criticism from Republicans who have harped on the administration’s failed bets on alternative energy. President Obama has pressed for $650 million for Department of Energy programs that would cover R&D grants for batteries, EV drive systems and other components. EV Everywhere would issue these grants to automakers and parts manufacturers to reduce production costs as well as retail prices. Republicans have used the failure of federal loan recipients like Solyndra to attack the alternative fuel industry as a flight of fancy. Election year politics will likely derail an ambitious proposal that would put America on track for a more sustainable transportation system.

Signs of growth for the incorporation of fuel cells into new vehicles include new partnerships as well as investment in refueling infrastructure. The creation of UKH2Mobility amongst public and private partners in the United Kingdom acts as a symbol of the technology’s popularity. Automakers including Honda and Toyota have announced plans for fuel-cell vehicle rollouts by 2015 with road tests likely by 2013. The roadblock to 2015 vehicle rollouts is a lack of refueling infrastructure needed by commuters and corporate fleets. Pike Research estimates that at least ten refueling stations could be opened along major highways in the next three years to handle the first generation of vehicles.

“The Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Industries” identifies areas where the fuel-cell industry could expand beyond the automotive industry. Hydrogen power is likely to infiltrate areas as varied as home heating and weather monitoring based on Pike’s projections. Utilities and manufacturers in the developing world are likely to engage in fuel-cell manufacturing in the near future to take advantage of this growth market. This expansion of hydrogen fuel-cell production and marketing will likely encourage automakers that the technology has entered the mainstream.

Pike Research underestimates the potential for battery-electric vehicles in the report’s conclusions. The hydrogen fuel-cell industry will no doubt grab a share of the automotive industry as consumers search for alternative fuels. “The Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Industries,” however, places too much stock in sluggish sales results for electric vehicles that are caused more by larger economic circumstances than technical problems. Consumers should not consider the potential for green vehicles in such black or white terms; rather, they should embrace a multitude of technologies that would eliminate dependence on a single fuel source.

UKH2Mobility starts with three goals that should help the United Kingdom jump into the fuel-cell vehicle industry. Partners in UKH2Mobility will study the alternative energy sources proposed by British communities including hydrogen fuel cells. This research will focus on building the case for fuel cells based on emissions reduction, available technology and costs to the consumer. Another goal for UKH2Mobility is analyzing the costs of developing refueling stations and training service stations to handle fuel-cell drive systems. The initiative will also develop marketing efforts to highlight the potential enhancements for the British economy through job growth, manufacturing and natural resources extraction.

Industrial partners in UKH2Mobility represent global leaders in the automotive and energy industries. UKH2Mobility features contributions from Vauxhall Motors, Toyota, Tata Motors, Nissan, Hyundai and Daimler. This initiative also leverages expertise from The BOC Group, Scottish and Southern Energy, Intelligent Energy Limited and Air Liquide Hydrogen Energy. Officials from the Department for Energy and Climate Change, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Department for Transport are coordinating these efforts. This public-private partnership should reduce barriers to mobilize fuel-cell technology over the next decade.

The British government has already gained expertise in the fuel-cell industry through the European Fuel Cells & Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. This partnership started on October 14, 2008 with the primary goal of facilitating commercial releases for fuel-cell vehicles by 2020. The Joint Undertaking also represents a connection to the European Union as the partnership was the first under the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan. UKH2 Mobility expands on the foundations of the Joint Undertaking while incorporating more businesses that have experience with hydrogen fuel cells. The United Kingdom represents an ideal proving ground for hydrogen vehicles given varied weather, traffic patterns and community sizes.

The Evoque HFI-R is based on the Land Rover Evoque powered by a 2.0-liter engine. This SUV has been converted to work with a Hybrid Fuel Injection (HFI) drive with a maximum output of 300bhp. Bigas International worked with Florence University’s Department of Energy to create the HFI dual-fuel system. This system allows the use of natural gas, hydrogen or a carefully calibrated mixture of both fuels to extend range while limiting emissions. The HFI drive uses controllers, an RI27J pressure reducer and electronics to manage fuel flow. Researchers at Bigas International and Florence University successfully concluded tests within the past month dealing with vehicle safety, emissions and fuel efficiency.

Marangoni’s contribution to this project is a newly designed tire called the M-Power EvoRed. These tires stand apart from the competition not only for their red tint but their eco-friendly design. The first generation of the M-Power EvoRed uses a high percentage of silica to decrease rolling resistance throughout their lifetime. Representatives from Marangoni note that the M-Power EvoRed cuts down on fuel consumption and lasts longer than comparable tires due to their advanced design. Performance metrics for the Evoque HFI-R include a 621-mile range made possible because of the Marangoni/Bigas collaboration.

This concept vehicle might only seem like an experiment but work done by Marangoni and Bigas International should be noticed by the auto industry. These firms used an existing vehicle body, replaced components to reduce environmental impact and made a splash at Bologna. Automakers have spent considerable time developing vehicle bodies that reduce weight, height and environmental impact to offset sluggish growth in drive technology. Marangoni and Bigas have internationalized the retrofitting process used by tinkerers and smaller firms over the past three decades. The Evoque HFI-R should draw copycats by manufacturers worldwide that want to take advantage of existing body designs while experimenting with new technology.

Details regarding the Toyota FCV-R point to a green vehicle with performance and design features that appeal to the average consumer. Toyota announced an estimated range of 435 miles thanks to advancements in fuel-cell capacity. The 70 megapascal (MPa) tank installed in the FCV-R not only improves total range from previous prototypes but also reduces tank size and weight. This four-seat sedan features a large trunk that allows drivers to take long road trips and handle multiple errands.

The Toyota Aqua Hybrid provides an alternative to the Prius for budget-conscious consumers. The Aqua Hybrid achieves high fuel economy thanks to an efficient 1.5-liter gas engine, a low profile and a body that measures less than 10 feet long. Toyota estimates that this prototype can achieve fuel mileage of 94 miles per gallon based on lab testing. The diminutive frame does not deprive drivers of sufficient cargo space, leg room and head room needed during daily commutes. The Aqua Hybrid is slated for release throughout Japan by the end of December with a 2012 global release to be announced soon.

Prototypes like the FT-EV II show that Toyota has a clear vision for the next generation of green transportation. The FT-EV II uses a lithium-ion battery pack and compact body to achieve a total range of 65 miles per charge. This concept represents Toyota’s foray into city cars that could be introduced in Japan by the end of 2012. Toyota also touts the Fun-Vii as a prototype EV that uses wireless communications and customizable features to create unique driving experiences without fossil fuels. The automaker also plans a demonstration of the Prius Plug-in hybrid during the show, which is the inaugural presentation of the model in Japan.