The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) recently joined the pantheon of trade groups and government agencies attempting to handicap future EV adoption. JAMA presented findings at the Environmentally Friendly Vehicle (EFV) Conference in New Delhi, India that projected 600,000 EV and plug-in hybrids in Japan by 2020. This estimate was placed in stark contrast by current green vehicle ownership in Japan. JAMA noted that approximately 600,000 green vehicles are operating in Japan, representing 0.8% of the nation’s vehicle fleet. This nationwide fleet only featured about 2,500 electric vehicles as of 2008.
The EFV presentation by JAMA indicated that performance expectations and innovation needed to find common ground over the next decade. Even as fuel cell vehicles are being developed by Japanese automakers, JAMA stated that electric vehicles represented a more realistic long-term alternative to combustion vehicles. Association representatives also cautioned that expectations of vehicle range must be lowered for the time being. Since JAMA projects that the average EV has a quarter the range of a combustion vehicle, the group contends that the next generation of EVs should only be expected to travel short distances. JAMA also pointed out that the Japanese government’s desire for batteries to cost 1/40th of their current prices by 2030 would require major innovation that is difficult to imagine given the current state of battery technology.
JAMA also noted that automakers, government agencies and other players in the green vehicle industry would need to look beyond technology to achieve wider EV adoption. The trade group stated that automakers need to focus on likely early adopters in order to make headway toward mass production of EVs. Not surprisingly, JAMA implored government agencies to cooperate with automakers and utilities by reducing regulations that would impede EV adoption. In the end, JAMA advocated for public-private collaborations to ensure that there is a comprehensive infrastructure for EV users.
We should not dismiss JAMA’s presentation at EFV as the spinning and contorting of a trade group hit hard by global economic problems. The battery cost issue raised by JAMA indicates a primary problem for automakers as they move plug-ins and all-electric vehicles into the market. Even with government subsidies and reduced battery prices, regional and national agencies would need to deal with the costs and realities of large-scale infrastructure development. JAMA’s efforts to dampen expectations of EVs in the short term should not discourage efforts at innovations in green technology; rather, these efforts should be seen as a call to arms for scientists, politicians, consumers and auto executives to do what is necessary to resolve these issues.
