The mass marketing of plug-in vehicles in the United States seems likely to impact urban areas more than smaller cities and towns. This conventional wisdom emerges not only from the large populations of big cities but factors including charging infrastructure, wealth and beneficial political environments. Analysts at Pike Research recently published a report that paints a more complex picture of market penetration by plug-in vehicles. “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts” concludes that smaller states should achieve higher proportions of plug-in EV sales than bigger states by 2017.
Pike Research estimates that yearly sales of plug-in EVs should be 358,959 units in 2017, a 43% annual growth rate from 2011 sales. The report starts with a forecast of overall plug-in sales throughout the United States by 2017. This forecast notes that California, New York and Florida should be the top three states in terms of total vehicle sales in the plug-in sector. These three cities could represent total sales of 613,871 units in the next six years. “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts” states that the top metro areas for total purchases should be New York, Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego and Chicago.
This report goes beyond obvious conclusions to shed light on where plug-in EVs could find receptive audiences. Analysts developed a geographic indexing system taking into account age, gender, income, race and household size. This index system was compared to current demographics of hybrid and EV owners, thus determining metro areas with populations motivated to purchase green vehicles. Pike Research determined that Portland (Oregon), Salt Lake City, Denver, Providence and San Diego are prime markets for plug-in EVs.
“Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts” also differentiates between cumulative sales figures and proportions of plug-in sales to overall sales. The conclusion that Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco will purchase the lion’s share of plug-in EVs in the United States is unremarkable. Pike Research studied metro areas where the proportion of plug-in sales could spike in the next six years. This study found that Hawaii should be the leading market by proportion in 2017 with a 6.3% share of sales for plug-ins. Analysts concluded that California (5.4%), Oregon (5.4%), Washington D.C. (4.6%) and Delaware (4.5%) round out the top five in sales proportion. The conclusions of Pike Research’s latest study will not come to fruition without an intersection of vehicle price, charging infrastructure and consumer awareness across the country.
