Consulting firm Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB) recently released a report highlighting EV and lithium-ion battery trends for the foreseeable future. The Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report tracks EV rollout and sales trends to 2020 based on current technology, government programs and consumer demand. The main takeaway from Opportunity Report is that there will be 400,000 EVs sold throughout the world by the end of the decade. This report was written by firm president Dr. Menahan Anderman ahead of the 10th Annual Advanced Automotive Battery Conference on May 17, 2010 in Orlando, Florida.
Dr. Anderman and his research team interviewed technology experts and executives at 35 battery suppliers throughout the world. This team found evidence that the miniscule EV sales numbers today will increase to 0.13% of new vehicle sales in 2015 and 0.50% of new vehicle sales in 2020. These numbers translate into 400,000 EVs out of 80 million total vehicles sold by 2020. Opportunity Report also noted that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will number about 500,000 units by 2020. This growth in EV and PHEV sales will lead to a parallel growth in lithium-ion batteries. Anderman estimates that the $150 million lithium-ion battery market in 2009 will grow to $8.4 billion in sales by 2020.
Opportunity Report does some work in dispelling the media hype around recent EV prototypes. Anderman notes that media coverage of the auto show circuit has blown the short-term prospects of EV sales out of proportion. This skepticism comes from an analysis of current EV technology, battery capabilities and charging infrastructure worldwide. As new vehicle sales continue to increase in the next decade, the introduction of EVs and PHEVs will seem like drops in the bucket. AAB seems to be taking aim at automakers like Ford and Volkswagen who are hoping to make big splashes with EV introductions by 2013.
AAB cites several factors that will be critical to achieving the modest sales projections laid out in the report. State and federal government subsidies to automakers will ease financial costs for producing green vehicles. Large-scale production of lithium-ion batteries will lead to greater efficiencies that reduce the unit costs of each battery. Successful performances by next-generation vehicles like the Nissan LEAF, the Tesla Roadster and the Toyota Prius plug-in will convince consumers to pay higher prices for their cars. The Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report shows that modest growth in EVs and PHEVs will require consumers, suppliers and automakers to align their interests.
