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The largest focus of stories on hybrid, plug-in and all-electric vehicles throughout the media is the wonders of technological advancements. Consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan from July to November 2008 seem more interested in price than the presence of lithium-ion batteries and regenerative brakes in green vehicles. The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research found that only 42% of 2,513 survey subjects would be willing to consider plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) without price incentives. This report is disconcerting for anyone who hopes that technology alone will get consumers to join the green vehicle revolution.
The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research moved away from surveys of early adopters toward a cross section of typical consumers. The institute determined that 56% of all people surveyed would not consider a PHEV if the cost was $10,000 more than a comparable gasoline-powered vehicle. The survey also determined that 54% of respondents feel the primary benefit of PHEVs would be independence from foreign oil. This rationale for PHEV purchases trumped price savings (31%) and environmental concerns (15%) in the study. Even though half of the respondents who cited emissions as a concern considered it very important, it is clear that the emissions message is not reaching beyond the converted.
In addition to looking beyond early adopters, the institute’s study looked at three criteria to determine the demographics of PHEV purchases. Each respondent was asked questions about commuting mileage as well as past vehicle purchases to determine the impact of past vehicle experiences on PHEV purchases. The institute also looked at household income, geography and the existence of charging stations to assess whether PHEVS were feasible for respondents. Respondents also offered their answers to questions about emissions, environmental issues and other concerns related to marketing PHEVs.
The lessons of this report include the importance of context and scale in rolling out future PHEVs. The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research report shows that automakers have myopic views on how quickly their PHEVs (and EVs) will sell. Early adopters tend to have more money and more liberal politics than the respondents questioned in this report. Toyota, Honda, Ford and other automakers must avoid the early adopter niche and keep prices low to attract consumers. This report also indicates the importance for each PHEV producer to enter at multiple price points from coupes to luxury sedans. As production scale increases, the per-unit cost will decrease and make PHEVs more affordable for the typical household reached for this survey.
